By Cassandra Garrison
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday in a historic presidential election during which the 2 primary candidates are girls, ushering in a brand new political period for Latin America’s second-largest economic system.
The candidate for ruling celebration MORENA, Claudia Sheinbaum, is closely favored to win the presidency, with some polls placing her at a twenty-point benefit over primary opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez, a senator with the center-right Nationwide Motion Occasion.
WHY IS THE ELECTION IMPORTANT?
Sheinbaum, a 61-year-old local weather scientist and former Mexico Metropolis mayor, has stated she plans to proceed the agenda of outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who was elected by a landslide in 2018. His leftist MORENA celebration has come to dominate Mexican politics and Lopez Obrador stays extremely fashionable, largely as a result of his welfare insurance policies which have helped the nation’s poor.
The subsequent president, nevertheless, should additionally tackle the thornier legacies left behind by Lopez Obrador, together with a much less confrontational method to drug cartels, expensive infrastructure tasks criticized for his or her environmental harm, and disputes with main buying and selling companions the USA and Canada over insurance policies that allegedly put international firms at a drawback.
With greater than 20,000 different positions up for grabs, together with Mexico Metropolis mayor, Congressional seats and Senatorial jobs, the election will set the tone for the following president’s mandate, and their means to push their very own agenda.
WHAT IS AT STAKE?
Mexico’s subsequent president will inherit a rustic with lagging financial development and an elevated price of violent crime, particularly associated to drug-trafficking by the hands of the nation’s highly effective cartels.
Mexico stands to profit from the so-called nearshoring phenomenon, during which firms relocate their provide chains nearer to their primary market, however development has been challenged by tough entry to wash power, water and labor.
Worldwide eyes will likely be watching how the brand new president approaches delicate enterprise relationships during which Lopez Obrador tried to renegotiate contracts and tighten state management of pure sources, points that always created friction with the USA.
The subsequent president should steadiness a precarious nationwide funds, with a big deficit this yr, whereas promising to deepen welfare applications.
Mexico can be within the midst of an unprecedented water disaster, with reservoirs working low and widespread shortages. There are additionally ongoing tensions with the U.S. over a decades-old water-sharing treaty. Ongoing drought and a baking warmth have enveloped a lot of the nation, bringing the consequences of local weather change to the fore.
As the primary lady elected to guide the nation, Sheinbaum or Galvez might face elevated scrutiny on how they method abortion and violence towards girls, points that activists have traditionally needed to struggle to get on the political agenda.
Mexico’s Supreme Court docket final yr declared it unconstitutional for the federal authorities to criminalize abortion. The subsequent president will likely be tasked with overseeing implementation of the courtroom’s ruling, together with deciding the situations for authorized abortions and budgeting for reproductive well being providers.
HOW WILL THE OUTCOME AFFECT US RELATIONS?
With U.S. elections simply months away in November, the following Mexican president will likely be below strain to work with the USA on key points like migration and fentanyl, a potent artificial opioid produced by Mexican cartels which has led to report U.S. drug overdose deaths.
President Joe Biden, a Democrat, faces former President Donald Trump, a Republican, and the primary U.S. president to be convicted of a criminal offense. Trump stated he would attraction the responsible verdict.
In Mexico there are widespread considerations about what a Trump presidency might imply for the relations between the 2 nations. Trump has stated he plans to make use of particular forces to fight the Mexican cartels and has beforehand referred to Mexicans as “rapists” and pushed the development of a border wall between the 2 nations. Mexico’s subsequent president will likely be tasked with sustaining the fragile relationship whereas holding their floor.
Whereas in workplace, Trump additionally oversaw the signing of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Settlement (USMCA), which changed the North American Free Commerce Settlement, together with harder guidelines on labor rights and automotive content material.
The buying and selling companions have battled out a number of main points below the USMCA, together with the influence on worldwide firms from Mexico’s reform of its power sector and the Latin American nation’s decree to restrict the usage of genetically-modified corn.
Mexico’s subsequent president will take the reins on these disputes, with a evaluate of USMCA set for 2026.
WHAT HAPPENS ON THE DAY?
Virtually 100 million Mexicans are eligible to vote. The polls open at 8:00 am native time (1400 GMT) and can shut at 6:00 pm. The primary official preliminary outcomes are anticipated round 10pm native time.
Mexico solely has one spherical of voting. Presidents can solely serve one six-year time period.
Sunday’s winner will take workplace on October 1 for the interval 2024 to 2030.
